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wild-1

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30/11/16

22:45

Post #: 21011813
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Originally posted by wild-1 ↑

I don't think the intrinsic value has changed, but the SP decline this year has been largely about concerns over decline in dose sales growth rate and lack of willingness to provide guidance. Perhaps better not to overpromise? Americas held up well, rest of world needs to lift its game. Question is are they really only 2% penetrated into the target market implying substantial salvage market growth opportunity independant of trials, or is it getting harder to find new patients?

The SP then went substantially higher in lead up to the results and $50 was looking quite likely if the trial was positive for primary endpoint of overall PFS. Alas, this wasn't to be. But this does give some insight as to how the company might be valued if upcoming trial results are positive next year. Could easily double IMO. Current SP seems to have found a base level I really don't think that trials are factored in ATM.

Big downside would be if both HCC trials AND the mCRC trials are all negative, plus evidence of further sales growth slowdown in next financials. Interested in any views in the downside risk if this scenario plays out.. Any thoughts?

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Might add the R&D update was quite positive and adds some value. It provides some further blue sky appeal to me. Hopefully at least one of these new technologies to get to market. Histone inhibition could be a big opportunity!

SRX Price at posting: $27.62 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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On this day..., page-6

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