Arion, there is being optimistic (which I am) but there is also being a realist. I'd love to know how much money was lost with punters buying in the 40c bracket based on Bruce's "offtakes before xmas" comment. I would suggest, quite a lot. Then there are the timelines - enough said on those.
So good management is about being realistic and providing forecasts based largely on fact (the past) plus having a good grasp on whats coming up. Unfortunately I think VRX's forecasts come from the same stable as Tim Flannery's - you know, the guy that, a few years ago said, "even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush". mmmmmmm - got that one right. NOT! I think he aso said that it won't rain again in NSW after our last drought but I stand corrected on that one.
Maybe Bruce has Tim on speed dial for forecasts.
IMHO
On watch, page-99
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