Share
684 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 5
clock Created with Sketch.
15/09/17
22:58
Share
Originally posted by Quinten
↑
It's all about the options mate.
Manipulation? yeah maybe holders are selling down the heads to get cheaper options.
We're so close to the launch and recent ann was positive and confirmation of launch with no more delays.
Buyers are all pulling their bids in favor of the options. Since msmoa was listed, over 2-3mil volume went through. Those money would've went though the heads and supported/increase the SP. Also I'm sure some holders sold the heads to get the cash for the options, which i must admit in doing myself.
But why wouldn't you? The options should've been priced over 0.15c. There's over 32mil options from existing holders and reasons unknown to us has requested management to list them so they can sell a few. And they're selling at a discount, maybe to get some cashflow? I'm sure they hold some heads as well.
If your worried about the SP getting sold down, then just look towards the options. If people are buying then it actually means they expect the SP to go to 40c+ once we're launched.
Let's say if i gave you $100k, will you buy 500k msm or 1mil msmoa?
For simplicity, lets say msm @0.20 and msmoa @0.10.
If the SP goes to 0.40c you would've made $100k profit on msm. but if you bought msmoa you would've have made $200k profit.
With over 2yrs expiry, in 2yrs time megastar may have done over 6 competitions and licenced out to asia, SP maybe at 0.80c. msm head profit now will be $300k, and msmoa will be $500k-$600k depending on time value it has left.
Now lets say i didn't give you $100k. But you already had $100k invested in msm heads. Will you sell them all now and try get in the option around 0.10c? You probably wouldn't if you expect the SP to tank once launch and by having options you run the risks of losing all the $100k due to the low liquidity once SP starts tanking. The heads you can still sell at a loss.
But what we are seeing here is some good demand in msmoa, so they're expecting a major SP boost once launched and will capitalize on the higher leverage. They must be expecting some serious reward here to outweigh the risk of losing all their capital in buying msmoa instead of msm.
Imagine 32mil msmoa trying to get sold all at once if the launch is a fail? Say goodbye to your $100k capital. But right now the market is not expecting a fail, as long as the volume in msmoa keeps churning.
Expand
Or.... They're simply selling free oppies they were free issued like two years ago, because they now have the liquidity. Over the years I've learnt that Everyone plays the option game differently - all depends what stage of the investment cycle you may be in.... And no doubt they have made serious coin already so happy to cash in a few. I agree with the math if you are a buyer at this stage but these current owners are well in the money and they're already well set in both. The heads always trump the options if Megastar runs hard.