once and for all: spot vs long term, page-3

Just re-iterate my thoughts from previous day re: viability of project.
Problem is the capex at US$555 milion. This is alot of money to expend on a project in Africa, in which the OPEX is 60% of projected forward sales (assuming $70 US pound). People may talk about Namibia being mining friendly etc. But perception is reality and the mine will be sited in Africa. There are also other potential headaches re water and electricity. Too many variables, too much CAPEX, and not enough OPEX margin. I sold out 3mths previously and am glad I did as I now have serious doubts about whether BMN will ever develop the resource, given the PFS figures. Project needs to be cashflow positive ++. Assuming long-term off take at $60-$70 and 5 million pounds per annum, and L-T cash costs $41, leaves $95 to 145 million US per annum. From this need to finance overheads and further exploration, before even get to start repaying interest on CAPEX and the principal. This is how any potential investor will evaluate the project, which BMN owns 80% of and does not include royalties and taxes. And these figures assume nil blow outs or problems, and in any evaluation need to consider risks of increased royalties and nationalisation (even if minscule risk we are talking $555 billion US outlay before any cash generated from project). There is not enough juice to get the project off the ground even using L-T off take price in projections.