Once every few years..., page-3

Times are achanging with;

Woolworth's cutting into Cole's mkt share.
Amazon will obliterate them
Coal prices main driver and they will fall.
Retail Sector screwed
Charts show a critical triple bottom at $40 . A few closes under there and goodnight Vienna.


I think that every time WES's share price has tumbled, there have been lists similar to yours with a litany of woes facing the company - often longer and more intense ones.

And yet WES has emerged from each previous "times are a changing" siren song, stronger and more profitable.

In that light, I'll back financial pedigree and fundamental valuation any time before I back indeterminate and imponderable thematic forecasts laced with hyperbole.

(I remember the last time buying shares in WES... in 2012 coinciding with the wailing and gnashing of teeth ahead of the entry of Masters into the hardware sector. The times were a-changing then as well, they were telling me. How much higher are Bunnings's Sales and Profit today?)

This approach has served me well for my entire investing career. I'm not sure what reason there is for me to jettison it now for an approach that takes wild stabs at what commodity prices will do, what the charts are saying or the making of all manner of speculating about pending irrational market behaviour by existing, or new, market participants.


By way of some examples of "looking in the rear-view mirror" investing:

MND - The mining sector is dead ("screwed", in your lexicon). they said.
Stock doubled in 12 months

CTX - Electric cars will kill their business, they said.
Stock doubled in 24 months

CSL - The flu business they acquired is a dumb decision, and the strong A$ will kill them, they said.
Stock quadrupled in 4 years.

DLX - There margins are too high; competitors will undercut them and steal their market share, they said.
Stock tripled in 5 years

MQG - Business model is dead, key skills will depart, they said
Stock is up fourfold in 5 years

TCL - Bond markets will revert and yields will rise, crunching the stock, they said.
Stock up 30% in 6 months

WOR - They have no work, the oil price is going down.
Stock up 50% in 4 months.


Hopefully you get the idea, but if you don't let me know if you want me to list more examples.