Feels like bio-techs have lost their allure, investors are looking for short term multi-baggers, and only looking as far forward as the next announcement and ignoring fundamentals.
PAB's early history was dogged by failures which were well documented, but now that those issues have been resolved I find the current valuation hard to believe. For me, reading the last comprehensive Bell Potter research report (ignore the irrelevant recent BBY one) gives me great confidence. A lot of the points the analyst was hoping for have materialised, lending greater credibility to the 12-20cps valuation range. In fact PAB has progressed past some of the aspects mentioned (eg the Onyx/Amgen interest.
The rights issue presented a great opportunity for sp manipulation, easy to sell at 6 and refill at 5 (I'm guilty of doing that with a few shares), and now we're in a classic post capital raising period of indigestion. NEU and others have had similar issues.
One of the positives is the illiquidity on the sell side. To build any kind of reasonable position will force the price back up. There's only a few million shares between here and 5 cents. Obviously new buying would prompt new selling but from what I've seen on the screens there aren't too many real sellers at this level, which makes sense. Why take up shares at 5 and sell at 4?
I think 2014 will be PAB's year, even more than 2013 already has rewarded long term holders. However it will require patience, which seems to be in short supply, so we'll have to suffer with an ailing share price in the meantime!
GLTA
PAB Price at posting:
4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
