To work out how much Presendin is worth, we can look at the...

To work out how much Presendin is worth, we can look at the costs of IIH to the American health care system.

In 2005, IIH cost the American health care system over $200m USD in terms of hospitalizations, surgery and physician costs. (1) Hospital admission cost per admission averaged $35k USD for shunts and optic nerve decompressions, and $97k for subtemporal decompressions (in 2005 USD).

Since 2005, UK healthcare costs due to IIH have increased by a projected 6 times, from 15m pounds in 2005 to 100m pounds in 2014 (2). Therefore applying a similar rate to the US, IIH will cost in excess of $1.2bn USD in 2020. Presendin already has Orphan Drug Designation for IIH, which means it has 7 years of market exclusivity at the very least (could go up to 20 years if the patents are approved). Over the next 7 years, this cost sums to $8.4bn USD, or $12.6bn AUD conservatively (we haven't assumed any increases in yearly healthcare cost since 2020).

We know that Presendin dramatically reduces headaches (by 37%), and also increases visual acuity, from the recent study. The question is, how much will that be worth to insurers?

Assuming that Presendin can reduce IIH healthcare costs by around 40%, that represents a value of 12.6 * 40% = 5bn AUD.

Even if Invex chooses to recoup half those costs as sales revenue, their total revenue will be at the very least $2.5bn AUD over 7 years from the USA alone. Add Europe into the picture, and we're looking at at least $5bn AUD total revenue over 7 years.

Where does that leave us today?

The registration trial is scheduled to begin early CY2021, with the drug to go to market shortly after. There is $35m in the bank, more than enough to fund the trial. Manufacturing will be taken care of by the potential big pharma partner.

All of this is to say, due to the recent results of the trial, the value of Presendin is somewhere in the low billions of AUD due to their projected revenue of $5bn. With a market cap of around $100m AUD, we're looking at a stock price that could easily go up to $15++.

References

1. Friesner, D., Rosenman, R., Lobb, B. M., & Tanne, E. (2011). Idiopathic intracranial hypertension in the USA: the role of obesity in establishing prevalence and healthcare costs. Obesity reviews, 12(5), e372-e380.
2. Friesner, D., Rosenman, R., Lobb, B. M., & Tanne, E. (2011). Idiopathic intracranial hypertension in the USA: the role of obesity in establishing prevalence and healthcare costs. Obesity reviews, 12(5), e372-e380.