One Nation polling 30pc in George Christensen's seat
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George Christensen, the federal member for Dawson, has been fighting on behalf of cane farmers. Andrew Meares
by Fleur Anderson
Outspoken Nationals member George Christensen would struggle to keep his Queensland seat if an election were held today, with voter support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the Liberal/National party now neck and neck, according to new polling.
One Nation and the LNP now have 30 per cent each of the primary vote, according to polling last week by ReachTEL and commissioned by the Australia Institute.
Mr Christensen, who has threatened to quit the Coalition and defect to One Nation over issues such the sugar cane farmers' dispute, the backpackers' tax, a banking royal commission and same-sex marriage, is one of the government's most vulnerable MPs with a margin of only 3.3 per cent after last year's election.
"One Nation are clearly on the rise, and this polling shows in a seat like Dawson in regional Queensland they could challenge for lower house representation," the Australia Institute's Ben Oquist said.
"This polling however also points to a major rift between key Coalition policies and voters in this long-time Coalition seat."
Only 14 per cent of respondents supported a corporate tax cut for large businesses, compared to 43 per cent support for a small business-only tax cut and 28 per cent support for the company tax rate staying the same.
More than half of the One Nation voters wanted company tax to be increased.
Even more surprisingly, more than half of the respondents said they supported a 50 per cent renewable energy target, while only 29 per cent opposed the policy.
Of the One Nation voters, almost half supported the 50 per cent renewables target.
"One Nation support was highest among respondents aged 18-34 at 43.5 per cent. Those younger voters also registered the highest support levels for a 50 per cent renewable energy target.
"The rise of right-wing populism in Australia is a political earthquake, and the fault-lines are in electorates like Dawson. If the Coalition does not address the concerns of heartland voters, it risks losing seats," Oquist said.
"The Coalition will not win back voters with a war on renewables and company tax cuts for the big end of town. On the contrary, this polling suggests that these positions could be driving their voters away."
