For me the Saudi war against US shale oil has already been won barring the final cadaveric spasms of that industry this year. What’s more the falling oil price has exposed the fragility of the US equities markets and the tone recently has turned decidedly pessimistic. The bear has arrived people.
The Saudis next war has already begun. A war to ferment deep sectarian divisions in the middle east so as to try and re-isolate Iran from the American patronage that it seems to have enjoyed under the Obama presidency (aka the nuclear deal that allows the sale of Iranian oil). The sectarian divide created by Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, interference in Syria and now with the recent executions of the minority shi'ite "trouble makers" in its oil rich eastern provinces is designed to draw the US back into the region and into taking sides once more. The tactic seems to be working although I'm not sure they counted on Russia joining the party. The Russians have escalated the game to a new height and made the Saudis gambit far more dangerous because with Russia backstopping Assad in Syria the proxies of Iran could end up turning the tables on the Saudis by destabilising their kingdom. This is turning into an existential fight for the Saudi kings in my opinion and will get much worse before it gets better.
The recent execution of Nimr al Nimr has worked perfectly to deepen the sectarian divide and recent reports even suggested that the impoverished Eritreans are now backing the Saudi and UAE cause with Saudi jet fighter sorties on Yemeni targets reportedly being launched from the Eritrean port of Assab on the other side of the Red Sea.
http://www.voanews.com/content/observers-see-several-motives-eritrean-involvement-yemen/3138689.html
Then we had last week NASA releasing pictures from space of oil storage tanks that had been set on fire by ISIS in Libya. "According to news reports, five oil storage tanks were burning: four near Sidra and one near Ra’s Lanuf. Each tank is believed to contain 420,000 to 460,000 barrels of oil."
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=87285&src=twitter-nh
Remember if it wasn't for Saudi Arabia's interference in Syria, ISIS would not have been able to get hold of the territory it controls in Syria and Iraq and along the Euphrates river so easily. The situation is complex and getting more complex every day and the fight is all about the control and price of oil. It is in none of the oil producing nations interests to have a low oil price but ironically the price stays low. Something will have to break soon enough.
Eshmun
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