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Woldanorf

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19/11/20

12:45

Post #: 48988301
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Originally posted by waynesworld: ↑

The recent presentation reiterated the informed opinion that ANP is one study away from commercialisation. By all consensus the beginning of the end of that process will be the middle of next year.

For good reason, peer value creation comparisons are made with Sarepta. Lets go back to a similar stage in the Sarepta story. We know that the MC of Sarepta grew from US$60m to $3B on FDA approval of Exondys 51. Could we see a similar trajectory in the growth of ANPs market capitalisation i.e. 50 times? Using a base of $0.10 that would be $5.00 upon approval of ATL1102 in the EU albeit approval for Exondys 51 was in the US. At the same time priority is being given to define a clinical path for ATL1102 in DMD in the US. So lets address the question of the two key markets. Of interest, and to gain some perspective on the importance of the EU market, Roche paid Sarepta US$1.15B upfront for the EU rights for an early stage gene therapy for DMD.

Lets make the point again. ANP are prioritising a clinical path forward for entry into the US. The value creation that we have seen take place over a protracted time period for Sarepta may be compressed into a small window for ANP. The science is compelling but the opportunity for value creation is out of this world.

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Agreed whole heartedly with your statement.

All of this is pivitol on 2b study success though if I am not mistaken? The odd for Europe won't necessarily be of much value if 2b is a fail?

ANP Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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