Peter van Insolence gives his take on parlous Albo.Single figure could prove to be death knell forAlbo: PVO
Story by Peter vanOnselen, Political Editor for Daily Mail Australia
• 1h • 5 min read
Singlefigure could prove to be death knell for Albo: PVO (msn.com)
- When Opposition overtakes government in 'preferred PM', it's often curtains
- Peter van Onselen reveals whether Albo is safe in Labor party room
Houston, we have a problem!
That is surely the sentiment echoing around the Labor Party caucustoday, following the release of an opinion poll showing PeterDutton as the preferred PM over Anthony Albanese.
That's the same Dutton we're constantly being told is unelectable anddeeply unpopular.
Now when he's compared to Albanese he's the preferred candidate. Whatdoes that say about how the PM is tracking?
But the bad news for Albo doesn't stop there. Labor's primary vote is inthe toilet, down to just 28 per cent - a new low for this government.
Looking a bitwobbly in the polls, there, Albo: Usually when an Opposition Leaderovertakes a PM as the preferred PM it is a death knell for a government. That'swhat the PM faced today© Provided by Daily Mail
For context, Labor's primary vote at the last election was 32.6 per cent and that only helped itsecure the narrowest of parliamentary majorities.
And whether it's managing the economy, national security or the cost ofliving crisis, those polled list Dutton as better able to look after each issuethan the PM is capable of doing.
You can trace the crisis in Labor's leadership back to Albo's poorhandling of the Voice referendum.
He prioritised the issue ahead of managing a slumping economy right whenvoters were increasingly under pressure from higher mortgage payments andgrocery bills.
Now he's slap bang in the middle of a cost of living crisis, a housingcrisis, fears around sky high immigration and an economy that is tanking whileinterest rates remain stubbornly high.
Each of them issues that voters don't rate him as adept at handling.
Usually when an Opposition Leader overtakes a PM as the preferred PM itis a death knell for a government.
It can even spell the end for the PM before they even get to anelection, if there are obvious contenders to take over waiting in the wings.
Anthony Albanesehas his party room numbers neatly stitched up. Above, he relaxes at the footywith fiancé Jodie Haydon last Friday© Provided by Daily Mail
When Kevin Rudd overtook John Howard as the preferred PM the Laborleader started measuring up the new curtains in The Lodge.
When Tony Abbott overtook Julia Gillard she lost the Labor leadership.When Abbott passed Rudd 2.0 the Coalition knew the election was theirs for thetaking.
Like Dutton, Abbott was another opposition leader billed as unelectable.
Bill Shorten never rose to dominate the preferred PM rating, whichperhaps explains why he fell short at two elections before Labor turned toAlbanese.
Albo eventually surpassed Scott Morrison as preferred PM, by which pointthere was no coming back for the portfolio collecting ex-PM.
To be sure, Dutton's lead is as narrow as you get - ahead of Albo as thepreferred PM by just 36 per cent to 35 per cent.
Meanwhile, 29 per cent of voters who can't even bring themselves toprefer either candidate.
And it is the first time Dutton has edged in front, in just the oneResolve opinion poll.
Newspoll, for example, still had Albo in front the last time it testedthe mood of voters.
But if the rise of Dutton's personal ratings holds up, and even sees himextend his lead in the months to come, it will stoke leadership tensions withinLabor and could lead to the first victory by a first term opposition leaderagainst a first term government since 1931.
It could also delay Labor calling an early election, hopeful of turningfortunes around over the summer before facing voters in the flat half of 2025.
Is it possible Albo doesn't even make it to the election? Rolled bynervous colleagues who have decided he's a dead leader walking?
Safe (for now)
Before anyone opposed to the Labor government and down on Albanese'sperformance gets too hopeful, here is why I think he's safe in his job (fornow) and unlikely to lose the next election despite the failings so clearly ondisplay.
Internally, Albanese has his party room numbers neatly stitched up. Theleft wing factional warrior has isolated the only member of the Left capable ofknocking him off. Tanya Plibersek doesn't have the backing of her faction.
In the Right, the only viable alternative right now is Treasurer JimChalmers. But he isn't particularly liked within the factional right,especially within the powerful NSW right. In fact, they loathe him.
And as Treasurer, Chalmers has presided over the economy at a time whenvoters doesn't think the government is doing a particularly good job on thatfront.
In short, Albo's failures on these core issues are Chalmers' fault too.A shared responsibility that undermines the argument for replacing one dud withanother.
Internally,Albanese has his party room numbers neatly stitched up. On the Right of theparty, the only viable alternative right now is Treasurer Jim Chalmers. But heisn't particularly liked© Provided by Daily Mail
As for the election, even if Albanese's popularity continues to decline,Dutton needs to overcome the pesky presence of the Teal MPs.
In their affluent, once blue-ribbon Liberal seats, their popularity aslocal MPs is sustained by musings on everything from climate change todiversity advocacy. Weak spots for Dutton in the eyes of Teal voters.
While it is easy to see Labor's 78 seat majority collapsing all the waydown into the high 60s, thereby taking away the government's majority, it ishard to see the Coalition lifting its current 54 seats to more than somewherein the mid 60s.
That would leave Labor with a larger number of MPs in the lower houseand therefore able to argue that it is better placed to form minoritygovernment, with the backing of the Greens and some of the Teal MPs too.
"Tanya Plibersek doesn't have the backing of her faction... Thepowerful NSW right loathe Jim Chalmers "
It would be an ugly win and a precursor to a destabilising three-yearsecond term for Labor.
But it is hard to see Dutton doing any better than such an outcome atthe next election.
And if Labor's scare campaign on nuclear power bites, that of itselfcould be enough to convince unhappy voters to reluctantly give the government asecond chance.
The problem for Albo is that a narrow win such as the one mentionedabove, all but guarantees that he won't survive his second term as PM.
He'll be dependent on the Greens to govern, which is hardly an antidoteto voter dissatisfaction on Labor's economic management credentials.
And a defeat of this kind for Dutton would be seen as good enough togive him a second chance, the same way Abbott got a second chance afternarrowly losing the 2010 election to Gillard. Three years later he became PM.
Are we about to witness history repeating itself? Perhaps, unless thegovernment has a cunning plan to pull itself out of the quagmire it findsitself in.
