PS: happy for someone to jump in and correct me on this: but the Hartley's valuation assumed that Tranche 2 (the Alcoa supply) as priced at $6.5/Gj, which is around 20% cheaper than the current ex-ante price coming from the DBP line (note also DBP quote that "Closer to Perth are smaller Perth Basin Gas Production Facilities. Red Gully (owned and operated by Empire Oil and Gas) currently supplies up to 10TJ/d into the DBNGP. New gas production facilities are planned for this region.").
Asides from those "new facilities" (someone at DBP knows more than we do), that means that Hartley's RG/RGN valuations - in the hands of MIN- are worth up to 10.6 cents more. De-risk RGN, and you end up with a "at market" estimate of around 89.5 cents (67 [baseline]+10.6 [market adjustment from Tranche2] +11.9 [RGN de-risk if successful).
EGO Price at posting:
44.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
