rexsh, I have enjoyed your input and commentary for a number of...

rexsh, I have enjoyed your input and commentary for a number of years now - yes, we've obviously both been on this one a fair while now. But, some of your rationale is beginning to sound like blind optimism, that has been repeated in the face of growing evidence to the contrary. Don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope you're right as I have a fair bit in this stock, but the signs are trending negative. That said, it may be the poor communication since DW was turfed that is giving that impression?
Blind optimism maybe. I don’t see the growing evidence against the project though ? I think you are right that poor communication has been building that negative sentiment around the project. I think that has also been created by a misunderstanding between the time lines that investors expect and the reality to get to the end goal on a project like this – this is very much managements fault in how they handled it earlier in the appraisal (like the statements at the last AGM). But I don’t see that as growing evidence that the project will fail. I just see it as poor investor management.
The reality is they hit desorption, the gas came on, the pumps couldn’t handle the gas, they then had to change the set-up, and at the same time progress a bunch of other things for the project. It has taken a lot longer than people expected, and it has not been particularly well communicated – I think partly because management were still discovering the solutions to the various issues. But I don’t think it means the project is going to fail.

My concern is similar to Khopchai's (and psi's) in so far as their well configuration isn't right. Wells aren't being properly shielded and dewatering is proving difficult. It seemed odd from the outset that they set that configuration up, and maybe that's why DW was turfed, but then again maybe there were reasons for it?
I think they were trying to do the best they could with the financial resources they have, and with a s little dilution as possible. As much as it has taken a long time, I still think that is the right track to take. Imagine they had $25m to drill a bunch of wells but then went ahead and drilled the wrong sized hole or didn’t get the frac right, or bought a bunch of pumps that were wrong……this is all appraisal work. The idea is to get to show proof of concept but at the same time not expend too much money. Once they have defined the right completion for the broader development then that is when they can ramp up the spend.
What we are all hoping is that they have spent enough on the appraisal to show proof on concept. If not they will have to spend a bit more on some more shield wells.

One interesting point you mentioned is that if the configuration is wrong that they should be able to go in and drill more shield wells to get there. Obviously that will take more time - and money, so would not be well received in the short-term, but so long as it can be done, it may well lead to a better outcome? I am not sure it would be poorly received ? The market may well think that this is the default case now ? that they have to drill more wells. Certainly the share price (market cap) is not suggesting a great degree of confidence in how things are going. but markets can get it wrong.

Bottom line for me at the moment is that management are simply not communicating what's going on properly. Not re DW, not with progress, not with plans, not with anything that allows for a well informed market to act with any degree of certainty or confidence. I hope this changes by the time the AGM rolls around - although personally something before then would be better.
I agree the communication has been poor in recent months (and even prior to DW’s demise). I think the statement in early Sep was the re-set investor expectations a touch too. It was very bland and I just thought they were trying to give the new MD some breathing space around time lines….I could be wrong.
I would be hoping for a decent quarterly to show some more detail about where they are at. Then I have no doubt the AGM will provide the opportunity for some people to ask some hard questions.