AFG 0.00% $1.61 australian finance group ltd

dlo, how do you get 54% chance of default?I would have thought...

  1. 64 Posts.
    dlo, how do you get 54% chance of default?

    I would have thought that $17 for $100 face note is so cheap that such calculations are almost meaningless?

    At 10.04% pa on the face, the dividend payout after 2 years is already 118% of the initial investment.
    So as long as AFG pays for even just another two years, I have recovered 100% of capital, + earned bank interest. Anything at all after 2 years (including repayment of capital) is pure profit. (But I suppose everyone knows this)

    NB I hold AFGHA, not AFG
 
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