If we kept every variable in last years Scoping Study the same and only modified the LiOH Price to US$80/kg it would result in the following:
Capex - US$532.2m
OPEX - US$6,399/t
Annual LiOH Production - 19.5Ktpa
LOM - 26 Years
LiOH Price - US$80/kg
NPV10 Post-Tax - US$7.39B
IRR Post-Tax - 169%
Payback Period - 7 months
Of course there are a number of variables that will change between last years Scoping Study and the PFS that is on track for Q1 2023
1) Inflation will no doubt have an impact on both Capex and Opex
2) The Processing methodology has changed, the company no longer requires a benification plant, instead utilising a direct leach process (This could save in excess of US$100m from the initial Capex, as well as lowering the Opex costs per tonne
3) The previous flowsheet yielded overall recovery of 53% (66.5 Benefication & 79.6% HydroMet), by removing benefication overall recovery in Lab scale testwork has shown recovery of +65% (which is a 22% improvement)
For fun and to give a rough indication of what the PFS may show in Q1, I have modelled a DCF Model based on the following assumptions:
Capex - US$450m (Lowered for no Benefication, whilst factoring in Inflation)
OPEX - US$5,750/t (Lowered for no Benefication and reduced re-agents + By-Product Credits, whilst factoring in inflation)
Annual LiOH Production - 19.5Ktpa
LOM - 26 Years
LiOH Price - US$25/kg (I have modelled a long term LiOH Price in line with recently completed Feasibility Studies from Peers
NPV10 Post-Tax - US$1.61B
IRR Post-Tax - 46%
Payback Period - 1.7 years
The Upside potential for Infinity if it can reinstate its PIV and then obtain an exploitation concession would be the largest out of any lithium player on the ASX that is at the feasibility stage IMO
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