only 12 mtpa then long term prices are the key

Based on previous reports ARH'S share of net earnings would be $75 million in the first year, based on producing 12 mtpa of products. Take away ARH'S other costs and with 490 million shares on issue that did not look flash on an eps basis .

I had always been hoping that we would get another billion tonnes and scale up to 24 million tonnes per annum initially with a commensurate increase in profit/cash flow.

Comments by Caruso on brr radio on May 28 seem to indicate we will be starting with 1 billion tonnes and production of 12mtpa.


I will be very interested to see what ARH's forecast share of the net profit is assumed to be in the BFS in year one of production and the product pricing (revenue) assumptions behind it.

There have been significant changes to the product mix since the King report and i believe Vale have negotiated an 80% increase in the price of pellets with the Italians this year. What are the long term realistic pricing assumptions?

Capital costs will be interesting given the deletion of the HBI pant and the probable location of the pellet plant in China on one hand and and general construction cost increases on the other (refer to CITIC's recent capital cost increases)

Could well be a sell on the hoped for hype surrounding the BFS announcement.

Clive has certainly done us no favors , but then again unlike GBG, AGO etc we are tennants not owners of the leases.