CPG,
Ratio of buy order to sell order clearly shows sellers currently have control of BTA at the moment.
But let us reflect on BTA revenue from Relenza, the previous 6 months till Dec 2008 only showed arouind $3.8m whereas the last Quarter to March 2009 showed $32.3 million. Clearly revenue from Relenza is very volatile & can fluctuate over a very wide range (last quarter clos to 10 times previous 6 months). The big question is, can orders double or triple over the next 12 months? Orders could in fact increase by a factor of 5 or even 10 & then its up to GSK to deliver the goods. But lets say double for a quarter in the near future, that amount is then $72.2 m for a company with a market cap of $244m at $1.40. Given BTA already holds $55m cash we could easily see a dividend or share buybacks happening. May be worth watch GSK for them announcing they have a big order on Relenza.
Then we might see fireworks in BTA.
Regards
Buffett
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