I, for one, am not prepared to give up on the deal.
BNB is large and complex enough that, effectively, a gun is held to the heads of the banking consortium. The bankers know that administration will lock in significant loan impairments. Further, administration, makes fragile bank balance sheets significantly weaker, at a time in which displaying weakness can be fatal.
1) The bankers need the BNB balance sheet to be in a position to confidently support the non-recourse debt.
2) The "corporate" or recourse debt is another matter. Some loan impairment is necessary to bolster the BNB balance sheet - there will be no structural change in non-recourse debt - because there is no need - these loans have specific security. I think the "hibernation" of the recourse debt is what will happen - this will reflect an effective impairment of all bank debt.
3) The board announced that ordinary and subordinated note equity has been wiped out. However, these structures need to be preserved to allow BNB to trade. (BNB in administration is to be avoided - this was the demonstrated intent, last year). The only way directors and management will proceed is on the basis of a viable balance sheet, now. I now believe the board announcement of negative equity was to pin the bankers down on the specific issue of impairment of the corporate debt. I think the details of the perpetual notes will reveal some positive news for BNB and BNBG holders.
The devil will be in the detail. Do not take a trader mentality to your review of the upcoming announcement. Look at the detail, consider the macro situation in a future, more normal, state.
I am suggesting that BNBG's may represent a marvelous risk to reward investment (very high risk, but a compensating very high reward).
It is not beyond the realms of possibility that even the BNB ordinaries may offer some opportunities for locking in the potential of future value at a very low price.
The nay sayers were wrong last trading halt with predictions of administration. They will probably be wrong again with predictions of administration. The notion that BNB and BNBG holders have zero equity, today, is a completely different proposition of what value may be present in the future.
Zero equity does not mean zero value!!
Hold fast!
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