Augusta while i think sushis figure is far too low, how else...

Augusta while i think sushis figure is far too low, how else does one arrive at a projection to estimate whether its a wise invest ment or not. The best way is to compare either:

1. Cash flow and forward cash low
2. NPV and future NPV of wells
3. Acerage and relative acerage

or a combination of the above.

When using acerage, you certainly have to discount or apply preiums to relevant sales. The most relevant in my opinion is the pioneer deal, the adi deal and the crimson deal. So far based on flow data it certainly must be deiscounted why?

simple lower flows, thus lower NPV, lower cash flow projections and lower quality acerage. Not rediculously but certainly notable.

Someones 5 day scenario above is a bit ficticious. Declines are on par, but starting from a much lower IP. Bit silly to justify using that stance.

Be caustious, while i could be accused by some here of being over cautious theres a few who seem over ambitious given the data available.

Pioneer is the best case scenario $11440 per net acre, but theyd have rocks in thier head to pay that much, given the significantly lower flows. aDI AWE was somewhere around $10370 per net acre. Again significantly better flows.



From what i can see AZZ are going to have to go to the market if this isnt rapped up quickly for a CR. VIL, AAM and many others have just had unsuccessful CR's on the back of multiple CR's and not meeting targets. So AZZ while having OK to good acerage certainly arent in a rock solid bargaining position.

Just an opinion. again i hope i am wrong for you guys sake and my old mans, but thats the way i see it. And just as sushi has just had acusations thrown at him, theres some pumping this a bit it might seem.