only a recession stands in the way of $200 oil, page-2

Thanks Footy, some food for thought. IMO, if the crude price went to $200 per barrel in the next few years, this would itself trigger another recession which would in turn bring the price down.

The other factor is that (also IMO) oil producers have a number of factors to balance.
1. They want the price to be as high as possible to increase their earnings (the obvious point)
2. Too high a price encourages oil importers to look for alternatives. I don't think they want to eventually be left with oil in the ground with no buyers because the buyers have made alternative arrangements
3. Recessions, no matter how they are triggered are bad for everyone, including oil producers.

In summary IMO I don't think that $200 per barrel in on the cards for a while at any.