CC David
At 14c the MC is $129M AUS or US$90M, nowhere near the US$250M valuation in 2014 by indpt valuers.
It would be now on my maths be valued much higher at US$400M -$500M due to risen production, lower debts, lower dozer debt, lower total debt, larger goodwill based on larger profit margins of 20% to 35% versus in 2014, larger infrastructure (tailings dam is valued US$60M more, crushers double efficient & plant circuits safer after capex spend).
14c looks like a capper and sellers dried off but Wellington kept buying below 9c-13c in our broker research by 800,000 shares per day and only stopped looks like 7 days before the TH. Wellington knew of the TH looks like, BCEE knew of the TH also looks like as no new sub holder notices issued since the last ones. It looked like desperation buying then a stop all of a sudden and when i was buying there was no volume anywhere except at 14c. Almost as if the job was done and a deal with them done.
When 90% of the shareholders have US$2T in AUM and 2 of them were ferociously buying in after the Q2 and before the TH, then a debt of $98M seems small in comparison. Any VA or new group would not leave the management team in place at the mine as they are the ones who made the statements and estimated that enticed all the new shareholders to buy in since Februarys relisting including Wellington & BCEE the safest bank in Europe.
My legal advice was that a VA or group of creditors would never leave Bond and his CFO CEO in charge of Bell Resources during the VA, they would be the first to go and they would take control of all the assets. Leaving them in charge is legally prejudicial, so it doesnt make sense. Removing all directors who had no skin in the game and no shares other than Griffins small $30K makes sense as the US NHs & CN holders could appoint their directors, their team and their own mine managers.
So the VA and whoever is now in charge have decided to keep the CFO & CEO which may mean either their estimates/projections & disclosures may be accurate or the non-disclosures of capex spending of $16M in 6 weeks, or $100M by December cash in bank or no sales offtake/income problems irrelevant or immaterial in their view...this is a positive for all holders.
If the holders had an inkling of a VA or cashwipeout and shares worthless would start selling in mass panic like in the first VA from 30c to 1.6c, they either deliberately prevented this by the lack of disclosure, the TH then the VA. You would think that if this was worthless and shares are 0 that W & BCEE would not have been mass buying on market and the selling after the Q2 report would have been so minimal. On the contrary we were told it was safe & stable, COP dropping, cashflow positive at all times with capex under control.
Where was the panic selling? nowhere
Where is the mine shutdown & management sackings if they were wrong? nowhere
Where was the saving of cash plan, capex deferral plan? nowhere
Where was the disclosure of capex blowout, cash wipeout, income wipeout? Nowhere
Where was the sackings of the mining staff and staff reductions? Nowhere
It doesnt make sense.
If the takeover target was 14c, you would think there would have been mass buying at 9c to make a 50% profit. It didnt happen. The mass buying was at 4c to 44c, then 4c to 17c, then 9c to 16c around 12.5c. So this pattern doesnt make sense either. Why buy at 14c-17c to make a takeover at 14c?
Why would US NHs who invested at 50c take shares valued at 8.3c or 14c? When they didnt take the shares at 44c in July 2014 or buy it for 30c per share at US$250M in 2014 before relisting?
I dont think their plan is to turn US$500M into $50M bc of $16M cashburn in 6 weeks.
MBN Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
