ZIP Longs have had a lovely
1,000%+ gain and now I believe the stock has shown many signs that it's needing a significant cool-down. Will share my thoughts below. Sentiment will be made apparent on why I have it as a
SELL as it has already gone to thesis as I will outline
I first made a
SELL alert on ZIP on
9th December days away after the Top became clearly evident. Attached was the thesis made back then, to help build a timeline to where prices are currently at
I was targeting
$2.40 as a place to watch. Technicals aswell as a fundamental factor of Insider selling $100M of stock
was a decent catalyst to add pressure to share price.
Further on, I made a more detailed chart analysing several indicators such as the
RSI & OBV along with the good old basics,
support, resistance, price and volume analysis
After a steep uptrend, prices formed what appears to be a left shoulder, spiking to a new high, retracing and then double topping before selling down and popping back up briefly to show signs of a right shoulder forming we have some signs of a head and shoulders playing out.
More bearish signals show OBV having a steep decline, suggesting this sell down on volume is confirming the direction, not to mention RSI has been flagging several blinkers and now after the double top, showed a clear divergence.
The Fibonacci (nowhere near an expert, a real beginner infact) shows a Golden Pocket zone of 0.382 to 0.618 ranging between $2.77 to $2.31. These prices are not far off the 150 EMA with 200 EMA at $1.58. Provided this is ending the downtrend and beginning the distribution phase, we could end up in panic selling. $2.86 is a vital level and could be considered our "neckline". A breach of that could put targets of $2.16 using the top of the double top, and duplicating that below the neckline.
Downside risks seem far larger than the upside now as I suspect any upticks and spikes will be shorted and sold into by longs and shorts adding collective seller pressure.
Attached lastly will be the 15min chart showing some zones. There is a gap upto
$3.12, and today's move up has created another gap now at
$2.91I can presume many market participants from short term to long term are taking advantage of the ZIP volatility, for me however I wouldn't be playing the long side on this anymore as I feel the risks are far larger now.
Since ZIP also has an emphasis on the U.S Markets, I should state that a former BNPL company called Sezzle once listed on the ASX under the symbol SZL was a PumpNDump here on the ASX. It has been listed on the U.S Exchange and after having a stellar Pump far greater than what ASX saw, it's now heavily in the Dump stage. Whatever happens in the States eventually catches on and I think this could have ramifications on ZIP in the near future.
Here was an article,
A juicy read!https://tokenist.com/sezzle-sezl-stock-plummets-after-hidenburg-announces-short-position/ that had a
Shortselling Firm do research which caused a
-22% collapse in the share price in 1 day, the largest sell-down since it's run up. I think these things all point towards a larger macro event that's cloaked between ZIP's good financials and hyped press releases about history making changes etc etc. Good luck to all holders. Geez and the CEO for locking in
$100M at the top? What are they holding back I wonder? To suppress the Retail Panic sell as instos and other funds sell longs and take the reverse
(20min delay)