Onslow Transhipping, page-484

Hi 1982;
I've done the calcs on what the free cash flow for Onslow looks like for Fy 26.
If they keep going at current rates (FOB cost AUD 58), Iron ore at $100, then they'll generate about $1 bn of free cash flow to pay down debt from Onslow and Onslow Mining services in Fy 26.

				Onslow EBITDA per tonne Aus $			34.0
	Date since	Total days	Rate shipped per day Tonnes	Total Transhipper unloads	Total shipped tonnes million	Rate per yearmillion tonnes	Estimated Free cash flow FY 26 Onslow (Fob AUD 58), $ m
	05-May-25	20.5	70244	72	1.44	25.7	872
	11-May-25	14.5	75862	55	1.1	27.7	942
	20-May-25	5.5	80000	22	0.44	29.2	994
	Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025
	Airlie	Coolibah	Montebello	Rosily
	18	17	17	20

It roughly $34 per tonne with FOB cost at AUD 58, based on assumptions below. Mark Wilson said on 3 rd quarter conference call assume 100% conversion of EBITDA to cash.
I think this might be because they have high depreciation charges, and banked up losses in Lithium and from right downs with Yilgarn Bald Hill etc, so basically probably not paying much tax in Fy 26.

So note, these figures aren't long run figures, just what they'll do whilst the MIN tax rate is low.

Iron price US $	99
realisation 85%	84.15
moisture 7%	78
aud usd	0.65
realisation Aus $	120
shipping cost per t	13.85
royalities per t	10
Fob cost Aus $	58
Ebitda	38.6
attritibutable	0.57
Mining ebitda per t	22.0
Mining services EBITDA per t	12.0
total EBITDA per t	34.0

The calculation is based off this slide from 1 H 25 result, and $12 per tonne for mining services Onslow based off $421 m for 35 m tonnes.
Mining services will probably have a bit lower margin for 1 Q Fy 26, around $10 per tonne whilst using the contractor fleet for about 1/3 rd of the iron ore haulage. But for 75% of year should average $12 per tonne, from October 26 onwards.