To
@blackdekka@Stonedfish and
@WindscreenBug thanks for your efforts keeping us up to date.
In the collaborative spirit of this thread, please see
this link to my rolling forecast. Interested in any and all comments but particularly those with regards to the production guidance for mining services (CSI) at nameplate. The below graphic from their half yearly has popped up a couple of times and seems to suggest they are expecting 500 Mtpa at nameplate. Is this how others are interpreting it? And if so, do we think it's realistic?
I've calculated external client volumes as the difference between total CSI production and aggregate TMM across MinRes-owned mines. Accounting for the ramp up of Onslow, the wind-down of Yilgarn and Bald Hill and assuming Marion, Wodinga and Pilbara remains steady on 1H25 production, I've estimated that external client volumes will need to grow from 20Mt to 33Mt in Q4 to account for the difference between guidance and MinRes-owned mine production:
280 Mt (FY25 guidance) - 198 Mt (YTD production) = 82 Mt (Q4 production)
82 Mt - 21 Mt (Q4 Onslow TMM) - 28 Mt (Q4 Marion, Wodinga and Pilbara TMM) = ~33 Mt
This is obviously a pretty substantial increase.
I've then extrapolated for FY26 but even with my optimistic figures, I've ended up short (~423 Mt) of their 500 Mtpa.
Can anyone add any context on this? I know I've left Lithium and Pilbara figures flat and perhaps this is misinformed?
Also, in the Q3 earnings call (transcript
here), there was a line from Mark Wilson that suggested the project in its current form (after haulage ramp-up is complete) is ultimately constrained by loading and unloading capacity, which he quoted was 60 Mtpa. In the presentation from yesterday however, they had unloading @ 43 Mtpa. Thinking about our path beyond 35 Mt without material additional CAPEX and wondering if anyone can offer some clarity on this.
(20min delay)