Ok, here's my update, just relying on a few other data sources too.
Rosily is unloading as we speak, Coolibah has just set off to unload, so i'll count that one for today, which makes 5 for today, following 6 yesterday.
And Peak is coming in to load as i write this note.
The pace over the last 4 days is now is 6,4, 6, 5 unloads = averaging 38 m t pa.
And the pace since 6 June, which is 10 days now, is 35 m t pa.
These rates are quite amazing and exceeding all expectations.In Min's original ramp up plan, they were suppose to reach 35 m tonnes by end of June, but have now been doing it since 6 June, with current run rate above that. See slide below from the November AGM that had them doing about 32 m t in June 2025 for the total month, and reaching 35 m t pa by the end of June 25.
The last 4 days they've be doing 38 m t pa.As far as i'm concerned the shorts and AFR can carry on with as much piss & wind and nonsense as they want; its game over for them.No capital raising, and Mins will be exceeding 35 m t pa in FY 26 at Onslow, probably significantly, and de-gearing very rapidly.
The Onslow system as currently designed can easily do more than 35 m t pa, and with transhippers 6 and 7 from June 2026 will probably get to 45 m to 50 m t pa.
Everything over 40 m t pa, they get an extra $4 of margin per tonne form full haul rd royalties.
There is a lot to love about this situation.
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| MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) | 31.6 |
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| Date since | Total days | Rate shipped per day tonnes | Total transhipper unloads | Total shipped (tonnes million) | Rate per year(million tonnes) | Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m |
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| 05-May-25 | 42 | 73810 | 155 | 3.1 | 27.0 | $852 |
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| 11-May-25 | 36 | 76667 | 138 | 2.76 | 28.0 | $885 |
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| 20-May-25 | 27 | 77778 | 105 | 2.1 | 28.4 | $897 |
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| 01-Jun-25 | 15 | 90667 | 68 | 1.36 | 33.1 | $1,046 |
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| Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 |
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| Iron Ore price US$ |
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| Airlie | Coolibah | Montebello | Rosily | Peak |
| $93.85 |
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| 37 | 37 | 37 | 40 | 3.5 |
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(20min delay)