Onslow Transhipping, page-839

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blackdekka

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18/06/25

15:01

Post #: 79479466
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Originally posted by xxLiONxx: ↑

Sorry to jump in the pit boys! There are merits in all arguments and everyone here is well meaning and long MinRes.

- Agree that the ramp up profile of this project is getting better. This is factual

- Agree that there is a push to get as many cargoes out of the door as we can to make a solid June30th close. So the numbers are somewhat elevated around this time

- There is still ~80KM of road that isn't yet fully upgraded so there is work to be done and we are not out of woods yet.

- To get to the $49 FOB we really need all fleet on the Haul road and potentially autonomous. Until that happens the costs will be higher

- FOB costs will also come down if onslow goes to a stable 40MTPA profile which is very likely once road is fixed and we are fully autonomous and have a 6th T/S commissioned next year.

- Agree that US$70 is a pretty bad situation. Is it happening anytime soon - I doubt. If MinRes can operate above $90 for 2 years we will be looking at a very different balance sheet than what we see today.

- As Iron ore goes south, AUD goes south too which offsets the impact and we may fo from A$122 realised price today to A$105.

- Rio Tinto revising the iron content of Pilbara Blend down has shifted the market in a way that reduces the discount Onslow product gets to the benchmark price - which offsets the weakness in benchmark price as well in addition to a potential drop in AUD

- Shipping costs, royalties, taxes etc all go down when things are bad.

As such, my view is that I/O at $70 is bad but there is nuance to this - Major I/O players like BHP/RIO as well the Analysts like WoodMac are not expecting I/O to fall to $70. --- $85 may be yes. But there are offsetting factors as well as supply cuts that will come in if that happens.

We will be fine as long as we get this road done in time. My money is on MinRes doing that in August-September and I am fully invested here.

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agree with all that LionXX.

MIN Price at posting: $22.66 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Onslow Transhipping, page-839

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