And whilst we are on the shipping stuff, they only did 4 yesterday as Peak in fact didn't sail, i got taht inccorrect, but she did today. Rosily and Coolibah also left. So that is 5 already for today. Airlie on the way in, and hopefully should take off tonight, so that's a day of 6 today. Basically now 7 days in a row with an average of 5 or greater= + 36.5 m t.
Agree with xxLionxx, we are certianly not out of the woods at all. It is trading cheap with 15% short because people perceive its high risk. But i'm feeling a lot more relaxed than say a month ago, because its demonstrably operating at 36 m t pa, with half the haul rd being repaired and 45 km speed restriction, and may be100 of the 140 triple trucks. So there is great upside to the production function.
Iron ore 70 is certainly quite unpleasant for company, especially if can't get fob cots down to 49. I don't think its likely, but model it as a 'worst case' scenario, and my view is its not a near death experience for the company if iron ore does go to 70, because about 75% of the total earnings then are mining services that should be invariant to the iron ore price, they just take about twice as long or more to pay off the debt. But can still comfortably cover the interest.
I do like and want to hear all the negative arguments.
I want to hear everything.
Only the paranoid survive.
MIN Price at posting:
$22.59 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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