Here's my modelling, (i'm sure there are a few errors), but its a lot worse than yours. I'll do cash flow for sh1ts and giggles....
Here are some things I don't think we agree on:
FOB costs of $49..... But I'll let that slide.
FOB costs will rise with inflation ~$1-2 pa
IO Platts will rise with inflation (hopefully) ~$1-2 pa
FOB increase minus IO increase should equal 0 change to margin....
No mention of non-sustaining capex in your posts.... I know it doesnt affect EBIDTA, but it does cashflow to pay off the loan. Last year was $2.5 billion, what are you putting forward for future years???
Non MineCo Lithium = $0 Other Iron Ore=$0 Mining Services (Onslow) $300-$460 million (between $4-$8 mining margin) Other costs affect cash flow $338 million = Break even ish!!! OTHER COSTS: = $338
So after loan repay, and other costs the company cash flow is basically $0.
The remaining part of the business Mining Services (Non-Onslow), is profitable with about $500m, but how much CAPEX is required in 2026 and onwards,..... I expect more than $500mill..
Therefore the the company is cash flow negative for almost 20 years!!!! (unless commodity price improve!)
tough to value a company which doesnt make money.....
MIN Price at posting:
$22.05 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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