OK, i'll quickly respond, we are actually quite close on the...

OK, i'll quickly respond, we are actually quite close on the MineCo FCF.

And from what i can tell you haven't included much else!

But then you have to include Onslow Mining services EBITDA = $428 m per year; all can be used to pay off debt;
Include the other mining services ebitda, say $600 m pa;

So you get a bullion there to either pay the interest or reduce the debt.

With growth cap ex, you don't include that. Growth cap ex produces growth in future earnings, if you just assume for growth cap ex (ROIC= WACC), it has no effect. If ROIC is > WACC large increase in value for MINs. Eg if they spend say $50 m on 60 triple trucks to take take the triples jumbos to 200 and produce at 50 m t pa, large value uplift.

I'm using $300 m per year for sustaining cap ex.

I'm confident i'm right; but if you think your model is right, just don't bother with MIns. You don't own any, so no need to do any work or post again. Just look at other stocks.

If it was going to take 20 years to pay off the bonds i doubt the 2027s would be trading at 100, and the 2028s at 102! 2 % premium to par. They'd be trading at 70 or less. And i doubt new chairman would have started at Mins with a statement on no capital raise.

Did you do this yourself or get it from an Analyst? If so, if you give me contact details i'm happy to discuss with them why they're wrong and get them to correct it.