Its all good JB. I am listening that's why i read it closely and...

Its all good JB. I am listening that's why i read it closely and wrote a detailed response. I think the main difference is we may get say $1 bn of cash and you think its used for growth cap ex and i say it can be used to pay down debt.
It doesn't really matter for valuation purposes so long as the growth cap ex isn't spent on a dog and the project fails.

My guess is given the precarious debt position they'll first focus on accumulating a lot of cash to pay off the first bond if they need to, rather than doubling down on another risky growth project; just for the next few years anyway.

I don't think i've got rose coloured glasses at all:

In terms of conservatism:
1: i have put zero for lithium, i'm sure they could sell these assets today and get something reasonable
2: zero for mining at pilbara hub, 1h made $29 m ebitda
3: zero for gas, no idea what the tenements and JV is worth
4: zero for the expansion option to 50 m t pa at Onslow, they are already operating at 37 m t pa with half the haul rd under repair, and only 5 of 7 transhippers; so the expansion to me seems pretty simple now, with very low cap ex, just need to buy another 60 to 80 jumbo triple trucks.

I don't think inflation makes much difference to the FOB cost over 3 years from 2026-2028; over time, if nominal price of iron ore stays the same i agree it does slowly squeeze all the profits. But also redistributes profits away from Bauwo and to Min with the project with the mining services part.
The sustaining cap ex figures i use at $300 m, is a lot higher than company's latest forecast in May presentation at about $150 m pa.

I just wouldn't worry about this stock JB.
There's plenty of other good stuff on the ASX, and plenty of expensive stuff too.
If you want a really simple one, just buy DBI: yield is 8%, with 4.5% growth pa, = 12.5% return per year, which beats any superfund's long term performance which average between 7% and 9%.