Yes, i agree with the sentiment of Drucken, first priority is safely operating it at 35 m t pa for a few quarters. I don't think they push for an expansion to 50 m t pa until transhippers 6 and 7 arrive from June 2026.
Having said this, once Haul Rd upgrade is complete, say end of August start of september, i can see them operating at a 40 m t pa daily rate when the weather is good, but then lose days to bad weather, high rain, wind, cyclones etc, and obviously impossible to predict how much of that you get; but probably the effect is to put them at an overall average rate of 35 m t pa rate. Conditions over september to december should be pretty good to operate with lower wind, lack of rain and lack of cyclones etc.
Then Jan to March period will probably be the worst time to operate with the weather as it was this year.
I use the futures market as the best predictor of future iron ore price, and that has the price trending very gradullay down from current 94 to 85.4 over tge next two years, in which case MINs will make a lot of cash and be very valuable provided it performs as is.
There is not much point in using any other central estimate, as if anyone could actually predict the future price better than the Futures market price, they wouldn't be telling you about it, but would be secretly trading and making a lot of money.
The Futures market will also get it wrong, its just the best predictor we have. So that's why you also do contigency analysis and ask "what if iron ore did go to 70", even though this outcome is very unlikely eg a 5% probability or less. And even under that scenario, if it say takes 2 years to gradually happen, and MIns has expanded to 50 m t pa, the company is still fine.
But if it happened say in 1 week, which is say a 0.000001% porbability, the company is in some trouble in paying down the debt.
In that case, Mins could probably sell the other half of the Toll Road for about $1.5 bn, given, the project is now a lot lower risk than August last year, at 35 m t pa, Morgan Stanley have bought a 13% per annum yield, risng at inflation each year for 20 years.
Selling the other half of the Toll Rd would then permanently raise Mins Onslow costs by $4.30 per year, rising at inflation for output less than 40 m t pa. So there is no need to do this unless the iron ore price falls dramatically.
That's why CFO keeps talking levers he can pull if commodity prices go significant south, and the first one he mentions is selling the other half of the Toll Road.
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