Onslow Transhipping, page-972

Stonedfish;
This is a great update. They lost about 40% of unloading capacity because of wind i think yesterday (only did 3), but the wind is now going down the whole time, and the forecast is good for the rest of June now. So i don't think they'll lose any more time to weather for the month, cross fingers.

They have already done 2 today, and i think given the position of where the transhippers are they are a good chance to do 5 or 6 today.

Below are the new rates, 33 m t average in June and 35 m tonnes over last 11 days even with the bad weather over 2 of those 11 days, 34 m tonne average since June 6.

I'm calling it now, they are going to exceed 32 m tonnes for June, and i think by the end of month will be close to a 34 m tonne average for June.

I'll send more detailed notes later, but my prelimiary analysis is that over an entire year they will only lose about 10% of transhipper capacity to weather events on average, whereas MINs had assumed 15% loss of days.

And i think as they get more experienced they can lift the 5 shipper run rate when conditions are good above 40 m t per day, probably to about 43 m tonnes per day.

	MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services)						32.0
	Date since	Total days	Rate shipped per day tonnes	Total transhipper unloads	Total shipped (tonnes million)	Rate per year(million tonnes)	Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m
	05-May-25	49.5	76364	189	3.78	27.9	$893
	11-May-25	43.5	79080	172	3.44	28.9	$925
	20-May-25	34.5	80580	139	2.78	29.4	$942
	01-Jun-25	22.5	90667	102	2.04	33.1	$1,060
	Current	11	96364	53	1.06	35.2	$1,127
	Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business)
		Fy 26	Fy 27	Fy 28	Mkt cap $ m
	FCF $ m	1110	1332	826	4022
	Price/FCF	3.6	3.0	4.9	FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28)
					81%
	Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025						Iron Ore price US$
	Airlie	Coolibah	Montebello	Rosily	Peak		$93.70
	46	45	44	46	7.5