Stonedfish;
This is a great update. They lost about 40% of unloading capacity because of wind i think yesterday (only did 3), but the wind is now going down the whole time, and the forecast is good for the rest of June now. So i don't think they'll lose any more time to weather for the month, cross fingers.
They have already done 2 today, and i think given the position of where the transhippers are they are a good chance to do 5 or 6 today.
Below are the new rates, 33 m t average in June and 35 m tonnes over last 11 days even with the bad weather over 2 of those 11 days, 34 m tonne average since June 6.
I'm calling it now, they are going to exceed 32 m tonnes for June, and i think by the end of month will be close to a 34 m tonne average for June.
I'll send more detailed notes later, but my prelimiary analysis is that over an entire year they will only lose about 10% of transhipper capacity to weather events on average, whereas MINs had assumed 15% loss of days.
And i think as they get more experienced they can lift the 5 shipper run rate when conditions are good above 40 m t per day, probably to about 43 m tonnes per day.
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| MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) | 32.0 | |
| Date since | Total days | Rate shipped per day tonnes | Total transhipper unloads | Total shipped (tonnes million) | Rate per year(million tonnes) | Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m | |
| 05-May-25 | 49.5 | 76364 | 189 | 3.78 | 27.9 | $893 | |
| 11-May-25 | 43.5 | 79080 | 172 | 3.44 | 28.9 | $925 | |
| 20-May-25 | 34.5 | 80580 | 139 | 2.78 | 29.4 | $942 | |
| 01-Jun-25 | 22.5 | 90667 | 102 | 2.04 | 33.1 | $1,060 | |
| Current | 11 | 96364 | 53 | 1.06 | 35.2 | $1,127 | |
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| Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business) |
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| Fy 26 | Fy 27 | Fy 28 | Mkt cap $ m |
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| FCF $ m | 1110 | 1332 | 826 | 4022 |
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| Price/FCF | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.9 | FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28) | |
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| 81% |
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| Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 |
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| Iron Ore price US$ | |
| Airlie | Coolibah | Montebello | Rosily | Peak |
| $93.70 | |
| 46 | 45 | 44 | 46 | 7.5 |
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(20min delay)