Yes. That is exactly what will happen.
If you still don't believe me look at the performance of USO vs WTI coming out of the last recession in 2008 (OOO didn't exist then). USO is the US Oil ETF (largest one). It completely underperformed the WTI benchmark it was 'supposed' to track. OOO is a different product, but operates on the same exact principles.
OOO - Warning Summary - OOO does not equal WTI, page-7
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