Open and close price on Monday, page-50

First the Motley fool has covered Lynas at least two times before each after a steep rise with strong predictions. then when price drops they just quietly drop coverage. No a uncommon practice for some. The Key to their prediction is an assumption that NdPr will be quick to recover after Covid 19 restrictions are listed. I disagree but will admit it is JMO. You should form your own. the base of my conclusion is prices before Virus activity. Indicate that REO rices were falling before Virus and have always been very erratic which is never a good environment to make money. I do agree that demand will improve. Unlike most I think the time frame is longer. So first a chart of new expenses announced by Lynas PDF which hits both ash and Profits and Malaysia C&L depreciations which hits only Profits. I find it interesting they say nothing about how these will be covered. I have a statement for any one to disprove. At 70% of Next Production rates and NdPR price of USD 40 no Vat will not cover these increases thru 2022 meaning loses. please find a Q with rates close to 70% and use COP data from that Q.

AUD Millions.
	PDF	MAL C&L	total
H1 2020		6	6
H2 2020	15	9	24
Total 2020	15	15	30
H1 2021		9	9
H2 2021	52	9	61
total 2021	52	18	70
H1 2022		9	9
H2 2022	52	9	61
Total 2022	52	18	70

Here is a chart of last 15 months to emphasize my point followed by a chart of last 3 years but with out detail because it makes chart unreadable.





So unless the M FOOL is going to show how new expenses are covered and put a real number on what NdPr will be I would think a lot before believing