Open Letter to Simon Hay, page-167

If you don't like the term "exponential" being used
what other word would you like to use to describe something like BYD's 632% year on year profit increase?
https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/1211.HK/key-developments/article/4022905
Would they not be the kind of figures you are looking at to represent the kinds of profit increases that big EV companies are seeing?

A 2018 study on the estimate CAGR of the electric bus market put it at 12.4%
A year later it has been revised upwards to 18.5% yearly to 2024.
97% of EV buses are made in China. That's a very quick upwards revision.
Some may even call it "exponential".

Those buses probably count for a single vehicle on some graph but they are one of the line items that is filling BYD coffers with cash and placing extra demands of lithium suppliers.

Reduction in subsidies is often thrown around as a potential demand dampener.
The reduction in subsidies has only had a positive effect on the popularity, quality, range of Chinese EVs
as it was primarily designed, at least in the initial stages, to weed out the incompetent and low quality companies
and to encourage the CHinese EV companies to build cars with greater range that will see them being more attractive to the western market.

Rather than doom and gloom from the subsidies you have seen approx 100% increases in sales as ICE vehicles fall away
and a trend towards bigger and better batteries.
In some Chinese provinces the wait time for a ICE vehicle license is a year. Buy an EV and there is no wait.
Guess why people are buying EVs.
As the subsidies come off they get replaced by new govt levers they can pull - govt vehicle purchases, military, banning ICE vehicles completely. The carrot eventually gets replaced with a stick.

Or the fact that now that China has relaxed the rules about sharing of IP, that the big western auto companies - VW, GM, Tesla etc
are building their new plants. Including those new western manufacturers there are now an estimated 500 electric vehicles companies in China.

And we're still only talking about China.
How many electric vehicles were bought in Norway 5 years ago?
Now, with the aid of subsidies and govt support of infrastructure, EVs have reached 50%.
Small country yes.
Then look at how far England, Germany, Holland, France have come in terms of policy changes, infrastructure support, innovation around new energy.

But no.
None of that sounds "exponential" does it?
I've heard this "coming from a low base" thing before.
It worked in 2015. But when you start seeing consistent doubling every year.. what do you call it?

Coming back to Galaxy.
IF you only see marginal or inconsequential increases in demand why then did Galaxy's client Yahua double their plant capacity at a cost of $120m USD?
Do you think they did that because they weren't happy with the product and want as much as they can get?
Do you think that means they don't think they can't sell twice as much?

If 100% is not representative of "exponential" growth - what figure would you suggest?