Open Letter to Simon Hay, page-168

You said:
"In some Chinese provinces the wait time for a ICE vehicle license is a year. Buy an EV and there is no wait."

I found some cities actually had a cap on NEVs:
"Now, in an effort to keep boosting EV sales without subsidies, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, has issued a statement indicating that it will ask cities to remove such caps on license plates for vehicles with alternative drives.
Last year in Beijing alone, about three million people waited for a license plate and only 60,000 plates were issued for electric vehicles. The change in the law also provides new opportunities for foreign electric car manufacturers who were disadvantaged under both subsidy provisions – since they had no access to the regular incentives of the state – as well as being limited by number plate quotas for NEVs."


You said:
"The reduction in subsidies has only had a positive effect on the popularity, quality, range of Chinese EVs
as it was primarily designed, at least in the initial stages, to weed out the incompetent and low quality companies and to encourage the CHinese EV companies to build cars with greater range that will see them being more attractive to the western market."

I found the subsidy was just a way of forcing the transfer of technology?:
"The policy(subsidy), put in place in 2015, was meant to help develop the industry. Supplying the information to get on the list was supposedly voluntary (link in Chinese), but in reality, using the batteries on the ministry’s lists made it more likely car makers would qualify for government subsidies. As of 2016, the last time the list was updated, it included a total of 57 companies—none of them foreign firms."


You said:
"Reduction in subsidies is often thrown around as a potential demand dampener."

I agree! Things looking to take a positive turn for non-chinese carmakers when the subsidy ends:
“Earlier, all the subsidies went to those using Chinese EV batteries—if you use LG and Samsung, you won’t get subsidies,” said Angus Chan, a Shanghai-based auto analyst at Bocom International, “When 2020 comes, it will be free-market competition. It’s straightforward for carmakers—energy density, safety, and price… Everybody is on the same racing starting point in the post-subsidy era.”


You said:
"as the subsidies come off they get replaced by new govt levers they can pull - govt vehicle purchases, military, banning ICE vehicles completely."

I found subsidies will be replaced by a Credit systems similar to that implemented in California:
"China began reducing its massive subsidies two years ago, and will move to a credit system next year."


I agree with most of what u say, everyone have a read of this article its very interesting and will provide an insight to what's really happening over in China regarding the end of the subsidy policy.

qz.com/1651944/china-ends-policy-steering-ev-makers-to-local-battery-firms/