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I think people are getting overly concerned with flow rates at...

  1. 172 Posts.
    I think people are getting overly concerned with flow rates at the moment. Don't forget we are moving from a world where oil companies are measured primarily by the resources they have in ground rather than their P/Es. All this because the global supply/demand dynamics have changed.

    Major oil companies are buying back their own stock (even at P/E ratios of 20+) rather than exploring for new resources. The reason is because they know oil is going to continue its steep ascent in price for the next 10-15 years. Some people might think they are mad, but the fact is they are looking at the wrong metric. Either use a forward PEG ratio (for producing companies) of an asset-based multiple (for non-producers), otherwise you are viewing the markets with blinkers on.

    Say for example, NEO reports production of 500bbls a day of oil and 2,000mcf per day of gas. Will the market go crazy? Maybe, maybe not? Have they factored in that they can probably drill a couple of hundred wells over the ensuing few years and multiply this production several hundred fold? Look to the future not at the present - that's how you identify real value!

    So if we are looking at discovered resources as an indication of future production and value, take stock at what they have supposedly found.

    Monteray oil (Discovery!)
    Stevens oil (possibly)
    Shallow oil (maybe)
    Echegoin gas (loads of it!)
    Slightly deeper gas (looks like it)

    If you want to know how much is there, go back and read over previous announcements (the information is there, I'm not going to do all the work for you). Apply your multiple - I'd use US$15/bbl for oil, US$3/mcf for gas in today's price environemnt, and risk it if you feel the need. Trust me you won't be selling at these levels when you do the math and press the calculate key.

    Happy homework!
 
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