opening price , page-11

correct me if im wrong but you got to feel for eddie groves here.

even though the half yearly profit was down, it was still $48 million for the half year (after paying interest on all loans). really dont know what all the panic is/was over, child care is not a business that demand will cease for anytime soon and the business had proven it was well and truely able to service its debt.

regardless we obviously are living in a different world now and we all have to get used to it. any company, no matter how profitable it is that carry's signifant debt is a huge risk.

so if the US deal goes through ABS have made $750 for a 60% stake of their US business alone. That still leaves 100% of their AUST, EUROPE & 40% of the US business, debt levels significantly reduced and a market cap for all the above of around $650 million. on face value ABS looks good value but as with AFG, CNP, MFS etc we have seen that anything can happen.

id rather be take a punt on ABS surviving than any financial stock in a similar situation simply because childcare is an essential business - someone will want a grab of this & worse case scenario there will be a bail out! and even if that fails, governments cannot allow a dominant player like ABS to go belly up leaving thousands of families stranded.

i have been wrong before & could possibly be wrong here but i dont think so. i think opportunity really is knocking here imho.