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Fat Harrys Cat

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10/02/17

12:42

Post #: 22516436
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Originally posted by ds ↑

Nope - that is about right. There are other stocks that would be suitable if you are after operating cash flow businesses - think of PYC (and many other biotechs) as scientific mining stocks - some have found a single potential resource and they raise money to pursue that to see if they can commercialise it and others have multiple potential 'mines' that would require lots of capital to explore. Phylogica has a platform ie they are potentially the gateway to intracellular deliver (which is big - lots of mines or equivalent to having a monopoly on providing shovels & trucks) and are using that to exploit a number of options of which iMYC is in the lead at the moment (think of MYC as the on/off switch in about 70% of cancers).

Companies like this go from capital raising to capital raising but hope to sell what they discover for tens or hundreds of millions of dollars yes even billions). Loook for signs of scientific validation and commercial validation ie people are willing to pay for it or access to it - eg USD2m from Genetech (Roche) just a month or 2 ago.

Recent chatter amount analysts I speak to say Phylogica could be as high as P75 on iMYC - in context that is a 75% chance of iMYC working which would be worth USD$500m+ so in once sense the current valuation is a joke but if it's only P50 then it's just cheap and if P25 then maybe just slightly undervalued. The problem as always is that if it doesn't come off they need another $5-15m to take the next leads through etc etc

Phylogica could take the iMYC through to a saleable data pack and run the risk (if successful they will never raise cash again) or they might decide to raise more cash and run the stat5 and Yb1 programs concurrently - reduces the risk if something fails but dilutes now - right in front of a potential bonanza.

If this is your first spec stock then congrats on finding this one - the potential is huge and I think it is going to 5-10 in the next few months but it has already had a re-rating (on substantial validation in Genetech) so buyer beware. I can see people are still trying to buy the stock so seems hard to get anything under 3.5c now - I think it will be back between 4-5c pretty soon and then into the value range.

Disclosure - I own heaps so read some posts that are more circumspect as I am well biased but I think this will be a billion dollar stock within 3 years.

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That's one reason why you are respected here DS.
You freely give your time and the benefit of your experiences to those of us less experienced in investing without sounding smug or patronising.
We appreciate it.

FHC

PYC Price at posting: 3.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Operating Capital, page-5

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