As I see it, Rogan's opinion maybe two thirds correct and the article is worth a read.
The article is correct in saying that the Afrin defenders have nowhere else to turn to except Assad. It is also true that Assad is simply out for what he can get. While Putin will try prevent direct conflict between Assad and Erdogan I'm less sure of that outcome than Tom Rogan.
Does Putin feel betrayed by Erdogan given the outcome of Erdogan's discussion with Tillerson? Is Assad making an independent micro stand on this for whatever reason? Could there be a Plan C that sees the emergence of trust between the Syrian Army and the Western YPG which could later be rebadged and used by Assad against the Islamist rebels more widely? These are all valid questions.
The US is just going to sit on its hands IMO and turn the other way for now. This is what both Iran and Turkey may both have been seeking (from opposite poles) if it can lead to a separation of Arab SDF , the YPG and inhibits further US support of the YPG.
One elephant in the room is whether or not anyone in the room will stand up to Erdogan's continued ranting, threats and blackmail? There comes a point ..... even for Putin.
With the exception of Erdogan's administration, it is my belief that all parties, including the US would be ready to head to a discussion table and from there the Syrians themselves need to decide what sort of governance model should evolve .
It is as it is. Turkey's fumbling, back flipping, hysterical paranoia, alleged money laundering and military provocations have directly led directly to the emergence of a new Iranian sphere of influence ..... in reality a new Persian Empire. The US will have to live with this outcome and try to engage with Iran whether they like it or not. Iran should then o drop it's crazy anti-US rantings and behave. Whether they do on not is another question.
Turkey is aiming to expand its proxy Al Qaeda led mini-state into Afrin and across North Syria to the Iraqi border. Is this the strategic outcome Putin, Assad or Khamenei are seeking? And so we see a minimal (for now) intervention into Afrin by some ragged pro-Assad fighters and possibly some Hezbollah fighters.
Where it goes from here depends on Erdogan's next move.
