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07/11/19
15:15
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Originally posted by Pihrana:
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I have been observing the NCZ threads from a distance. It’s really interesting that, having been proved wrong, all the operational bears seem to have packed their bags and disappeared. It seems that the remaining doubters only have the Zinc price left to raise as a reason not to invest. These naysayers keep debating stockpiles here and there, plucking numbers saying ‘the Zinc price will drop to US$0.80 and TC’s stay elevated and the currency goes to US$0.60! I may as well say that the Zinc price is going to US$1.80, the currency will rally to US$0.80 and TC’s will plummet! Guys, it’s all crystal ball gazing, show me an analyst who has correctly forecast current pricing and, if you can, I will argue it’s a fluke! Have a view, but in reality nobody knows! This is not a government bond, if you don’t like risk then this investment is not for you! My personal view is that operationally NCZ are back on track and, that if they continue to achieve their production forecasts, cost per lb goes through the floor and earnings + free cash flow will rocket. In time this stock will appreciate markedly from current levels - who knows it may even push though previous peaks! Sure, if there is a serious issue then the reverse will apply. I’m not here to argue, but if you cannot handle risk then equities are not for you, make your point and move on, stay away and focus on government bonds!
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Finally someone who is positive. Love your comments Pihrana. New Century has been knocked about by low zinc prices, high TC's and despite this are powering ahead with consistent cash flow positive returns imminent, lower costs and higher production. I agree they can't control prices or TC's but they are heavily focused on the things they can control. More production, lower costs, decreased risk etc.