operational reports - error, page-11

Clueless101,

sorry haven't got a clue, how long it takes (sorry for the pun). so can't help you.

Cloak,

I'm looking for the factual or most likely outcome. I'm not interested in the hype that's put out.

Do you not want me to be honest?

Yes I thought that Lonestar well was a dog compared to the data originally given by the company and then compared to the decline curve of other permian basin operators as well.

Its the company who put out the IP numbers not me and yes there is usually still water production when this happens.

Its what happens after the well has reached its IP that I care about. how long does it maintain that sort of production level? how much is the production level falling by? is it accelerating or decelerating?

So you can have an idea of what sort of production rate the well can maintain longer term. That then gives you a ballpark idea of what the EUR is likely to be and that's a key fact for valuing Permian Basin leases. As Pioneer say its a numbers game. The costs are pretty well known, its about how much return you will eventually get on your money.

Just look at Archers, IP over 140 bopd, never produced more than 900 barrels in a calander month, sadly will never have an economic EUR.

If the honest answer is 8 days and it comes from the company (ie re-affirmed by them) then the simple fact is, that the decline curve is very steep at the moment, daily production on day 30 would have been below 100 bo. Now looking forward, I'm looking to see when the rate of decline starts to slow? will it be in the 70's or 60's or 50's only time will tell. However its not a good sign.

If your just saying 8 because its the difference on the 2 announcements, then the possibilty is still there of it actually being 7 days as the numbers suggest. Which obvious gives us a shallower decline rate thus far, so hopefully the well will start to level out at a higher rate, ie in high 80's 70's or 60's, which would be a better sign, only time will tell.

LOTM