+14% move for the week on 31m shares traded so nothing too big but perhaps the most interesting observation for me was that the sell side was chipped away to around 10m total by close of market. And that a few of the large orders sitting out of reach moved back. IMO these large sell orders never intend to sell, likely put there by the same ones buying the shake out but that's rats and mice stuff, pretty normal in the ASX casino.
Next week we should know the thickness of the first coals intersected and start to build a picture of the extent, this is where it gets super interesting. The geological modelling suggests 40 TCF of gas in place over the acreage and this is risk weighted at 19% to bring us to the prospective resource of 7.6 TCF. The red shaded area in
@OilGasPlanning mapping shows the 3000km2 of most prospective areas. This represents around 10% of the tenement.
I've mentioned 10m coal thickness as where I'd like to see them come in but it could well exceed this. The obvious significance is that more coal = more gas. The modelling I have done suggests a highly profitable operation if they discover 10m of coal at say 8m3/t methane. Each km'2 would then contain around 3.8bcf of gas of which I model 22% is recoverable therefore ~$8.4m of gas per km2 (single well zone). This would give us around $25 billion worth of gas if it were to be over the 3000km2 (10% of the tenement).
View attachment 1785605As coal thickness or gas saturation improve then so do the numbers, if we have seams 20m thick over 10% of the tenement then there could be $50 billion worth of gas in place.
View attachment 1785614We know we have world class management and the available info on the area shows that we MAY have world class coal seams. Next week we get the first glimpse of real first hand data that an significantly derisk the play.
