It is fairly disappointed with the recent financial result as I was expected higher revenue growth based on a newly presented slide#13 on the Aug IR presentation deck - numbers of implemented beds. H1FY20 (Jul19-Dec19) average implemented beds were ~7k and with $4/m/bed, expected revenue = A$168k for 6 months. This was aligned with the H1 reported revenue of $153k, and before covid, the implementation was smooth.
Looking at H2FY20 (Jan20-Jun20), the average implemented beds were ~17k but heavier in Jun20. 17k x $4 x 6 months, expected revenue = A$408k. This represents 390% YoY from H2FY19 revenue of A$83k. However, H2 reported revenue was only $95k. What it meant was most of the revenue is pushed to H1FY21 and the delay should be mainly due to covid management in RACs, but happy to hear any input on this.
Further check on the FY20 annual report, I notice a backlog of 35k contracted beds, 5x higher than FY19, with ACV of A$1.68m! FY19 backlog was +7k(checked FY19 annual report)
The question is how good will PainChek be in FY21. This led me to track its download from Applyzer by compiling both iPhone & iPad and Aust & UK downloads day by day for 3 months, compared with US Livongo apps download. For those who do not know what is Livongo, it is a very famous health app that manages chronic conditions such as diabetes and hypertension, and you should check out their share price and their recent integration with Teladoc. While I understand they are not in the same business/market, but a comparison with a famous US SaaS company would help me to benchmark how good is PainCheck. PainChek downloads are 5x higher than LVGO!
A flavour of breakdown by country for PainChek. Hopefully, we can see the acceleration in the UK market in Sep.
To conclude my findings:
1. acceleration in implemented beds pushed forward to H1FY21
2. backlog increase by 5x from FY19 on contracted beds
3. strong traction on PainChek apps download
DYODD ...
(20min delay)