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Operations Indicators, page-9

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    I like the backlog aspect of your analysis. That is correct, H1 FY21 is when those beds get contracted. Reminds me of Tesla where there is a lot of deposits on the car but due to production not meeting deliveries, there is a backlog. Hence, Tesla reiterates that they don't have a demand issue but a supply issue. For Painchek, they could get those 35k beds contracted now, but due to Covid, management in RACs are focused on other things. There is not a demand issue or even a supply issue as the app can be downloaded using the cloud, but It's a pandemic issue. Although recently, we have started seeing action with the app download maybe that backlog is starting to reduce.

    The second part of the analysis is the wrong way to think about. I wish it was that easy to count the number of downloads but unfortunately, it's ranking. There was a discussion way back on how we could quantify rankings to a set of metrics that make sense. My suggestion was correlating rankings to contracted beds during the period using download spikes. Like looking at the past quarter worth of app ranking data and locating spikes in downloads and correlating with a contracted customer. So like last quarter there were these customers with a number of beds on the right;
    • RSL Lifecare 2,589
    • Baptistcare NSW & ACT 1,824
    • Warrigal Pty Ltd 924
    • Hall & Prior WA 800
    • Hall & Prior NSW 665
    • Hardi Aged Care 601
    • Nazareth Care 572
    • Estia - South Australia centres (probs look at their financial report to see how many they have)

    If you can tie the beds highlighted in bold with the spikes in ranking during that period which was April - June then you can start thinking about how many beds they can contract on a quarter by quarter basis. I saw 11 notable spikes last quarter from Australia. Which is close to the number of customers reported at 8. Maybe Estia is an ongoing thing?

    I think that's the smart way of looking at it instead of doing cumulative assessments of rankings. UK is not that useful as we know that all those beds are from Person Centred Software coming from small aged care customers. The funny thing tho is that we can track the progress of their full-time Painchek manager. That person is responsible for the 45,000 beds that are yet to be contracted using Painchek. 5000 beds I am guessing have been contracted with Person Centred Software.

    Hope this helps


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2438/2438013-65407f814ff0e5d1ddaa09649e5ac1b3.jpg

 
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