Vainglorious, Thanks for that information, but you will need to...

Vainglorious,

Thanks for that information, but you will need to link me to where you see these figures of <$50/t... you said you used reverse engineering, and i suspect you have made an error somewhere.

I have downloaded MMXs Q3 2011 results, and also their latest presentation in my own research and trying to find out how they are doing (its great to have a producer in the area, so thank you for informing me of this company, great for comparison reasons!)

From my research here is what i have found:

The company floats on the Brazilan Stock exchange, safe to assume that its traded in Brazilan dollars, which the company refers to as R$ (so assumption 1 = $R = Brazilan$)

Currently $1.00R = $1.78AU - CTM presentation uses a price of $1.00R = $1.65AU (we will use the lower figure, the one in the CTM presentation)

In Q3 2011 MMX:
Sold: 2,112,000 tonnes (69% Domestic, 31% Export)
Domestic: 1,457,280
Export: 654,720

Revenue: $287,900,000 R
Makeup of revenue (as per report):
Domestic Sales: $170,248,000 R
Export Sales: $117,643,000 R

So our $R per tonne calculation (revenue/tonnes)=
Average Consolidated: $136.32 R
Domestic Only: $116.83 R
Export Only: $179.68 R

Remember these figures are in Brazilan currency, so lets convert them to $AU using 1 = 1.65

Consolidated: $224.93
Domestic: $192.77
Export: $296.47

Yes the converted figures seem a bit high even for me, but if we assume that the $R is Brazilian dollars (and i don't see no reason not to assume that, unless someone can enlighten me to the contrary) these are the figures that are REPORTED by MMX.

Also they mention their costs per tonne decreased 17.5% in that quarter to $47.72 R = $78.74 AU

Yes this companies costs are higher than what CTM is assuming the spot price will be!
So CTM does look like a better investment?

MMX isn't new to producing Iron Ore in brazil as its currently targeting 50mtpa for 2013 and 100mtpa thereafter.

One last thing from their Q3 2011 report is this paragraph:

"Long term perspectives

In spite of recent uncertainties in the international financial market, MMX remains confident in its long term
results, based on the tendency for per capita steel consumption to increase in developing economies and the
continuing high urbanization rates in China.
Brazilian iron ore will continue to be the main steel input in the coming decades, due to its high quality and
the country´s logistical capacity, which is capable of meeting the additional demand which the future
promises. Faced with this scenario, MMX is strengthening its strategic position in the international market by
developing its own logistics infrastructure and increasing its current base of mineral assets."

Main point being that Brazilian iron ore will continue to be the main steel input in the coming decades, due to its high quality.

Remember the current product MMX is pushing out is 64.5% Fe grade, as compared to the 66% CTM plan to push out.

In my research i have found no evidence that spot prices are lower than $50/t, if you can provide proof of this, with some links I'll be more than happy to read and inform everyone else of the findings.