opinion/speculation/valuation, page-5

re: opinion/speculation/koro/pbt "For example, around 12 months ago, I bought 20,000 shares in PHY at 2.70 (later increased to 100,000 shares at 3.40) on the basis of its low share price, solid balance sheet, strong pipline of projects, takeover potential, and a bet that Labour would win the Fed election and increase MRET. I then started posting positively on PHY. Many people on these boards replied to my posts by calling PHY a "dog stock" and one to short. For a time, the negative posters had their way, and at one stage the stock fell to around 2.55. But I held on, and over the last 9 months things have gone almost exactly as I predicted (with the exception of Labour winning the election of course). Following the strategic review, my research on PHY was distributed (by PHY insiders) to Carnegie Wylie and the Fairfax media and played a significant role in shaping public expectations about the take-over price (which likely had an influence on potential suitors' internal valuations). I'll be sorry to let go of PHY."
Ousia, I followed your thread on PHY and found that you argued your points with a plenitude of research and straight out 'gut-feeling'.
I bought 10,000 of PHY at $1.34 in 2001 and have added to it gradually as the price declined.
Your research confirmed my 'gut-feeling' .
Around this time last year I invested in PDN for uranium.
I have had an interest in ERG since 2001.
My holding now is about 500,000. In purely financial terms I am about at 'even-stephens' on ERG .
I have enjoyed the risk element of ERG, other posters here have enjoyed bagging ERG as a dog stock and like PHY in your case I now believe there is very little risk but that ERG's SP will come good by the end of the year.
With all these profit downgrades, how many mid caps in can be said to be profitable in 2005 (end).
Two really good posts on ERG in two days....Keep it up .

My main focus is on INFRASTRUCTURE in general....Toll roads, Airports, Telecoms and AFC