Opinions Wanted - Chattree profitability and TAFTA, page-23

Thanks for the comments - appreciate the input and the civil tone. As I said, I gain nothing if it goes down, and I do think $200m is cheap.


Overall, I was curious to see if anyone had actually tried to value the company in any robust sense; it doesn't seem like that's the case. No dramas at all, each to their own and everyone has to make their own decisions! Very best to the holders - it's been a tortuous process indeed.

As for calls of 3x-5x baggers - fingers crossed! But I'd be surprised if the market has misjudged so badly when there's so much public awareness around the issue. The possibility of an unfavourable announcement; the possibility of further delays; the possibility of delayed payment by Thailand; etc. etc. Will be interesting to see!


@maersk - thanks for that, on the same page.

@fitzroy5 - I share your scepticism of accounting, but gold is a cyclical asset and miners are cyclical businesses: the future value of the company will partly be forecast based on past performance. Of course you can argue with that as a process, but that's simply how valuation is done in any investment bank and 100% is how it will have been analysed in the hearing. I think you misunderstood me - I am very much interested in working out the likely FV of the company; but you and I clearly have different approaches to actually calculating that number.

@Hfguy - thanks for you input, and yep, same take.

@mjg100 - and yet no one seems to be willing to actually post their 'back of the envelope calculations'. The only numbers I've seen are LoveGod's, and, to be honest, while I appreciate the need for humour and optimism when holders have been stuck in silence for so long, no one here could really take his analysis seriously, unless they're trying to kid themselves. Chattree's profitability is dependent on its costs and the gold price, that's about it. Yes, in 2010 it was doing very well. Then it was loss-making for almost half a decade, and as I said, would have been marginally profitable ($200/oz) FY16-FY19. I don't envy the tribunal's having to forecast where gold will end up!


All the best to all holders.