Hi Keygeo Appreciate your post an overall recommendation. I have...

First 4 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
frog65

762 Posts.

4

20/01/16

23:47

Post #: 16837208
Share

Originally posted by keygeo ↑

I've recently given this one a good deal of thought as I am holding a good swag, but in fact come up with no definite conclusion ...

1. mawer (a substantial shareholder) has reduced its holding down from 10% down to currently 4% over the 5 last months or so - i'm guessing something to do with concerns over the current rapid expansion going on, and also perhaps cashing in on profits.......... it will be interesting to see if they unload further at this price level......mawer would be best placed and better qualified (rather than any of us) to make a judgment here.........

2. pe's, roe, book value can be manipulated and sometimes misleading .............

3. cashflow is possibly a better indicator than earnings and in this case, per share it is less than half that of earninings so instead of pe - cash flow /price , 440/ 22 = 20 in lieu of pe = 11.0..
and also note that the cashflow has not grown at all over the last 6years .........

4. book value - so you say that the book value has increased substantially - but there has been no amortization whatsoever over the last 10 years, when you could assume that a premium paid for each takeover might have been in the order of say 30%.........
the book value over the years for tangible assets has varied between just 10% - 14% of total assets - the remainder 86 - 90 % are intangjble assets .........
so a more realistic assessment assets might be more like 50% of that quoted

5. so debt / equity might be more like 100% .......... none of this matters so long as the interest on loans is well covered ..........
also, earnings per share seems to improve with debt, and the current debt is probably less than the average debt over the last 10 years..........

return on equity would likewise need to be adjusted ...... in fact over the last 10 years on average roe has dwindled substantially ........

6.

6. after all of that possibly the best indicator of value is perhaps that cash flow per share has remained on average constant over the last 6 years, a 5.5% dividend has regularly been paid (net 7% with franking), and the debt on average over 10 years has averaged much the same, but with large ebbs and flows .......

7. ........7% on your money is not too bad, so I am holding for better market conditions, prepared to wear the cost.......... the business model appears great, whether the rapid expansion can be handled efficiently is another matter...........

gk

Expand

Hi Keygeo

Appreciate your post an overall recommendation.

I have held this stock for 4months when recommended by Motley Fool andI thought the figures & sp made it appear attractive.

The sp has continued falling and I am doubting the figures being made public.

I have no idea on how long the short selling will continue and ultimately what impact it will have on the sp ?

Last edited by frog65: 20/01/16

RFG Price at posting: $4.14 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

FL1

First Lithium hits high-grade mineralisation in all holes of diamond program in Mali

CU6

US FDA awards Clarity Pharma's novel prostate cancer PET scan imaging compound fast track status

CC9

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

STK

Strickland Metals jumps on mammoth gold-copper-silver hit over 300m width at Serbian Rogozna Project

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

There are more pages in this discussion • 3 more messages in this thread...

First 4 Last

Add RFG (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 6.9¢		Change -0.001(1.43%)		Mkt cap ! $171.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
6.8¢	6.9¢	6.8¢	$140.3K	2.035M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	164640	6.9¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.0¢	46745	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	164640	0.069
5	415327	0.068
3	443798	0.067
4	376518	0.066
6	874424	0.065

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.070	46745	2
0.071	221175	5
0.072	43900	2
0.073	413700	3
0.074	1614950	5

Last trade - 15.44pm 22/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

RFG (ASX) Chart

Hi Keygeo Appreciate your post an overall recommendation. I have...

First Lithium hits high-grade mineralisation in all holes of diamond program in Mali

US FDA awards Clarity Pharma's novel prostate cancer PET scan imaging compound fast track status

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Strickland Metals jumps on mammoth gold-copper-silver hit over 300m width at Serbian Rogozna Project

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Hi Keygeo Appreciate your post an overall recommendation. I have...

Top Stories

First Lithium hits high-grade mineralisation in all holes of diamond program in Mali

US FDA awards Clarity Pharma's novel prostate cancer PET scan imaging compound fast track status

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Strickland Metals jumps on mammoth gold-copper-silver hit over 300m width at Serbian Rogozna Project

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News